Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 0.178216 0.200329 0.224231 0.252003 0.283413 0.317863 0.358551
2025-11-16 0.136637 0.164311 0.196387 0.236384 0.285028 0.342399 0.415394
2025-11-23 0.107757 0.137588 0.174386 0.223273 0.286760 0.366751 0.475707
2025-11-30 0.090983 0.122793 0.164364 0.222956 0.303883 0.412407 0.570128
2025-12-07 0.074209 0.105320 0.148171 0.211926 0.305121 0.437519 0.641915
2025-12-14 0.062537 0.092997 0.137052 0.206005 0.312319 0.471819 0.732613
2025-12-21 0.053370 0.082872 0.127521 0.200787 0.319539 0.507089 0.830898
2025-12-28 0.047857 0.077423 0.124141 0.204344 0.340729 0.567063 0.979010
2026-01-04 0.042059 0.070657 0.117677 0.201841 0.351485 0.611567 1.108961
2026-01-11 0.037765 0.065749 0.113528 0.202527 0.367663 0.667703 1.269622
2026-01-18 0.034506 0.062149 0.111074 0.205751 0.388767 0.735844 1.465159
2026-01-25 0.030051 0.055798 0.102862 0.197121 0.386212 0.759027 1.576256
2026-02-01 0.025914 0.049593 0.094288 0.186925 0.379787 0.775183 1.679692
2026-02-08 0.023044 0.045432 0.089048 0.182573 0.384598 0.815227 1.843339
2026-02-15 0.020496 0.041570 0.083886 0.177620 0.387392 0.851634 2.006794
2026-02-22 0.019086 0.039835 0.082793 0.181150 0.409369 0.934225 2.296962
2026-03-01 0.016985 0.036373 0.077632 0.174952 0.408252 0.963807 2.463171
2026-03-08 0.015411 0.033845 0.074144 0.172033 0.414390 1.011782 2.687392
2026-03-15 0.014021 0.031545 0.070861 0.169096 0.420006 1.059512 2.921728
2026-03-22 0.013263 0.030581 0.070481 0.173102 0.443738 1.157706 3.318935
2026-03-29 0.012235 0.028857 0.068096 0.171752 0.453331 1.220320 3.627458
2026-04-05 0.011456 0.027633 0.066755 0.172885 0.469831 1.304985 4.022892
2026-04-12 0.010857 0.026775 0.066203 0.176027 0.492487 1.411444 4.512883